The Diligence Edge

Post-announcement deal risk analysis

Independent risk analysis for the first thirty days after a deal is announced.

A 72-hour memo for the executive accountable for the outcome. Built entirely from public information, written without a stake in the deal, and explicit about which figures are found and which are modeled.

Request a free one-page summary Read the public memos

Full memos from $3,500. The one-page summary is free for any announced deal.

72 hours
From engagement confirmation to a finished PDF
0–30 days
The post-announcement window the work is built for
3 public memos
Real deals, dated and left up as written
Public information
No non-public information used or requested

The problem

The reporting line that runs an integration is rarely the one best placed to challenge it.

Most post-close problems leave a trail in public information well before they reach an internal status report: hiring patterns, licensing and regulatory filings, court dockets, leadership changes, the structure of the financing. The difficulty is not that the signals are hidden. It is that they travel slowly toward the person accountable for the result.

The team running an integration usually built the thesis it is now delivering. Its credibility, and often its compensation, depends on the deal working. That is a property of the structure, not of the people, and it means contradicting evidence tends to be softened at each level it passes through.

52% of the 700 dealmakers surveyed named operational disentanglement as the top execution risk. KPMG, 2026 Global M&A Outlook

Who is positioned to validate the deal

  • Corporate developmentBuilt the thesis and presented it to the board.
  • Integration leadershipJudged on delivering that thesis.
  • Executive sponsorsCommitted to it, often publicly.
  • The Diligence EdgeHolds no position in the deal.

A working model of when risk becomes visible

  • Day 0Announcement.
  • Day 30Assumptions harden.
  • Days 60–90Problems begin to surface internally.
  • Months 4–6They reach formal reporting.

Method

Every finding traces to a public source, or is labeled as modeled.

Public information only

Regulatory and state filings, licensing databases, court dockets, press releases and workforce signals. No material non-public information is used or requested.

Found and modeled are kept apart

A figure that is found is cited to its source. A figure that is modeled is labeled as modeled, with its basis stated. The two are never blended into a single number.

Dated and left standing

Each memo records its date of analysis and the day count since close or announcement. Public memos stay up as written, so the record can be checked against what happens.

What a memo is not. It is not transaction due diligence, valuation advice, deal advocacy, integration consulting or legal advice. Regulatory points are orientation for your counsel.

The memo

Eight sections, written for the executive who owns the result.

  1. Executive Risk Summary

    An overall verdict on one of three levels: Proceed Confidently, Monitor Actively, or Course Correct Now, with the primary exposure stated plainly.

  2. Internal Capture Assessment

    Where the structure of the integration is likely to filter out unwelcome news. Written about structure, never about individuals.

  3. Deal Thesis Stress Test

    The assumptions the deal needs to hold, ranked by how fragile each looks against public evidence.

  4. Hidden Failure Point Analysis

    Where integrations of this kind have gone wrong before, drawn from comparable deal outcomes.

  5. Value Leakage Map

    Where value is most likely to leak and by roughly how much. Estimates are labeled as modeled and their basis is stated.

  6. 30-Day Decision Window

    What can still be changed cheaply, and what becomes expensive to change once the window closes.

  7. Questions to Ask Your Own Team

    Specific questions that test the reporting you are receiving against what public information shows.

  8. Analyst Perspective

    Direct recommendations for the next 72 hours.

Delivered as a PDF within 72 hours of engagement confirmation.

Where it sits

A different question, asked at a different time, to a different reader.

Transaction due diligenceIntegration consultingPost-announcement risk memo
QuestionShould we sign, and at what price?How do we combine the two businesses?What does public evidence say could go wrong, and what should be checked first?
TimingBefore signingFrom signing through integrationThe first 30 days after announcement
InformationData room and management accessInternal data and teamsPublic information only
ReaderThe deal teamThe integration programThe executive accountable for the outcome

Public memos

Three memos, on real deals.

Each memo is built from public information only, dated, and left up as written. These are independent analyses, not client engagements, and none of the companies named has commissioned or reviewed them. Summaries are below. The full memo is available on request.

Analysis as of 16 Oct 2026Monitor Actively

Integrity Care Group and 15 NextCare clinics

Urgent care · closed 30 Sep 2026, announced 7 Oct 2026 · Goldman Sachs Alternatives-backed acquirer

A platform that changed its corporate name, clinic brand, chief operating officer and footprint inside roughly six months is now adding 15 clinics in two states where it has never operated. The memo rates three drivers: changes landing on one management team in one quarter, getting paid under a new owner across three states’ payer regimes, and the fit of metro clinics inside a model built for rural communities.

The acquired business is about 200 employees. Its annual net revenue, modeled at $17.8–28.5 million, is a modeled range, not a disclosed figure.

Prepared 26 Mar 2026Elevated

Controlled Thermal Resources and Plum Acquisition Corp. IV

SPAC business combination · announced 9 Mar 2026 · pro forma enterprise value about $4.7 billion

Integration risk is low because CTR survives as the operating company. The exposure is execution: a $15 million minimum PIPE and a $100 million closing cash floor against a first-stage build the memo models at $700 million to $1 billion or more, with lithium prices far below the level the valuation assumes. If prices do not recover before production starts, the later equity raises the plan depends on become hard or very dilutive.

The first-stage capital need is modeled from comparable projects. Public filings confirm only the cash floor and the PIPE minimum.

Prepared 12 Mar 2026 · 9 pagesElevated

Greenbelt Capital Partners and Peak Utility Services Group

Utility field services · third private equity ownership in twelve years

Peak has grown to roughly 2,800 employees across 15 states, largely by acquisition. The memo rates workforce stability, safety compliance continuity, systems fragmentation left over from that growth, and the debt structure behind the deal, and argues that each can erode EBITDA on its own and that together they compound.

The memo estimates an $8–15 million EBITDA impact in the first 12 months if no retention and integration protocol is in place. That is an estimate from industry benchmarks for field services businesses, not a disclosed or confirmed figure.

To read a full memo, name it in the request form below. I reply within 24 hours.

How an engagement works

Four steps, with the fee agreed before any work begins.

  1. You name the deal

    Through the form or by email. An announced transaction is enough to start.

  2. I confirm scope and fee

    Within 24 hours, in writing, including whether the deal warrants a memo at all.

  3. The memo is delivered

    An eight-section PDF within 72 hours of engagement confirmation.

  4. Optional monitoring

    Weekly signal updates for 30 days, direct messaging and a review call at day 15.

Pricing

Fixed fees, confirmed before work begins.

Start here

One-page summary

Free

For a deal you name

  • One page
  • The overall risk posture
  • The single exposure I would check first
Request summary

Option A

Memo

$3,500

One engagement

  • All eight sections
  • Delivered as a PDF
  • Within 72 hours of engagement confirmation
Begin engagement

Option B

Memo and monitoring

$6,500

Memo plus 30 days

  • Everything in Option A
  • Weekly signal updates for 30 days
  • Direct messaging with the analyst
  • One 30-minute review call at day 15
Begin engagement

Advisory firms

White-label memo

$1,500per memo

For boutique advisory firms

  • The full memo, white-label or co-branded
  • Extends your client relationship past close
  • Flexible wholesale structure
Discuss partnership

If a deal does not carry material risk worth the fee, I will tell you before you pay.

For advisory firms

Stay in the room after the deal closes.

Advisors close the transaction. Their clients still own the first thirty days after it. A white-label memo lets a boutique advisory firm return to the client with an independent risk read in its own name, without building a post-close practice.

Built for firms advising on $10M–$200M transactions, with two to twenty professionals.

  • Delivered white-label or co-branded, for your client
  • $1,500 per memo, with a flexible wholesale structure
  • Built from public information only, with sources cited
Discuss a partnership
Allan Karatu, founder of The Diligence Edge
Allan KaratuFounder and analyst, The Diligence Edge

About

One analyst, public sources, and no position in the deal.

The Diligence Edge exists to tell the executive accountable for a deal what public information already shows about its execution risk, early enough to act on it and without a stake in the outcome.

Allan researches and writes every memo himself. Sources are cited. Figures that are modeled rather than found are labeled as modeled. Each memo is dated, and the public ones stay up as written, so the work can be checked against what happens next. When a deal does not carry risk worth the fee, he says so before you pay.

Focus is execution risk after announcement, not valuation or strategy.

Questions

What readers ask first.

Do you use confidential or non-public information?

No. Memos are built from public information only. Material non-public information is not used or requested, and it is not part of the analysis.

Is this due diligence, or legal or investment advice?

No. It is an independent read on execution risk in the first thirty days after announcement. Regulatory points are orientation for your counsel, not legal advice.

What if a deal does not carry meaningful risk?

Then I will say so before you pay. A memo that finds little is a result, and an honest one.

What do I receive, and when?

An eight-section PDF memo within 72 hours of engagement confirmation. Monitoring clients also receive weekly signal updates for 30 days, direct messaging and a review call at day 15.

Request analysis

Name the deal.

Tell me which transaction you are weighing or have just announced. Within 24 hours you will have a plain assessment of whether it warrants a memo. To read a public memo in full, name it in the message.

Or write directly: allan@thediligenceedge.com

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